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Table 4 Projection of heat-related excess deaths

From: Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection

Region

2030

2050

Populationa

Baseline

0 %b

50 %b

100 %b

Populationa

Baseline

0 %b

50 %b

100 %b

AP_HI

177,053

2,427

4,802

3,635

2,598

162,307

2,528

6,866

4,395

2,588

As_C

9,529

611

1,458

975

598

103,588

947

3,797

2,024

854

As_E

1,428,481

5,343

18,423

11,053

5,837

1,332,115

7,050

36,739

18,612

7,184

As_S

2,033,885

10,692

26,666

18,022

11,296

2,284,943

17,429

65,562

37,524

18,489

As_SE

723,970

1,449

5,718

3,078

1,594

777,181

2,487

19,662

8,371

2,549

Au

32,982

119

370

230

125

37,063

156

837

424

174

Ca

48,633

2

195

75

2

49,792

3

553

261

3

Eu_C

115,732

988

3,123

1,955

1,090

107,099

1,058

5,396

2,998

1,417

Eu_E

195,411

1,708

6,350

3,647

1,860

178,872

1,732

10,471

4,845

1,721

Eu_W

441,260

3,570

6,214

4,722

3,485

446,713

4,425

13,367

8,334

4,677

LA_A

66,776

41

372

160

40

75,150

71

1,760

548

78

LA_C

287,206

700

2,181

1,239

711

318,626

1,226

7,364

3,363

1,249

LA_S

69,901

234

924

537

263

74,285

301

2,069

925

289

LA_T

229,162

364

2,050

1,066

432

233,166

563

6,546

2,545

694

NA_HI

401,536

2,408

7,394

4,704

2,702

446,749

2,953

15,441

7,877

3,235

NA_ME

584,318

1,596

4,780

2,977

1,683

681,137

3,209

15,331

7,940

3,302

Oc

14,113

4

47

14

3

18,172

8

195

68

7

SSA_C

152,539

201

918

482

221

212,327

438

4,007

1,645

485

SSA_E

574,918

858

3,686

1,923

857

848,878

1,679

14,734

6,060

1,776

SSA_S

81,752

156

539

319

165

87,940

246

1,737

798

300

SSA_W

543,556

775

2,491

1,486

785

809,872

1,578

9,468

4,465

1,679

  1. aIn thousands. Based on United Nations 2010 revision, medium estimates
  2. b0, 50, and 100 % represent adaptation level
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Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine

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