Table 3 Risk of Plasmodium vivax infection for local residents in 10,000-trial simulations
Infection | Risk ratio to more than one patient in the months shown (%) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tourist | Resident | Immigrants | ||||||||||
Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | |
HBI 1% | ||||||||||||
Primary infection | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.01 |
Short relapse | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.05 |
Long relapse | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.60 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.73 | 0.91 | 0.05 |
One patient | 0.01 | 0.37 | 0.93 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.35 | 1.43 | 1.57 | 0.11 |
More than two patientsa | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
[1] | [1] | [2] | [1] | [1] | [1] | [1] | [1] | [2] | [2] | [2] | [1] | |
Total | 0.01 | 0.37 | 0.94 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.38 | 1.45 | 1.61 | 0.11 |
95% CI | (0.00, 0.06) | (0.26, 0.51) | (0.76, 1.15) | (0.01, 0.09) | (0.15, 0.34) | (0.24, 0.47) | (0.12, 0.30) | (0.00, 0.06) | (0.27, 0.52) | (1.23, 1.70) | (1.38, 1.88) | (0.06, 0.20) |
HBI 5% | ||||||||||||
Primary infection | 0.01 | 0.26 | 0.85 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1.15 | 1.52 | 0.13 |
Short relapse | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1.08 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.51 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.37 | 1.72 | 2.23 | 0.22 |
Long relapse | 0.01 | 0.91 | 2.37 | 0.07 | 0.40 | 1.07 | 0.65 | 0.05 | 0.96 | 3.48 | 4.29 | 0.37 |
One patient | 0.02 | 1.50 | 4.10 | 0.20 | 0.79 | 2.02 | 1.09 | 0.06 | 1.56 | 5.70 | 6.86 | 0.71 |
More than two patientsa | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.57 | 0.92 | 0.01 |
[1] | [2] | [2] | [1] | [2] | [2] | [2] | [1] | [3] | [2] | [6] | [2] | |
Total | 0.02 | 1.59 | 4.30 | 0.20 | 0.82 | 2.08 | 1.15 | 0.06 | 1.71 | 6.27 | 7.78 | 0.72 |
95% CI | (0.00, 0.08) | (1.36, 1.85) | (3.91, 4.72) | (0.13, 0.31) | (0.66, 1.02) | (1.81, 2.38) | (0.95, 1.38) | (0.03, 0.13) | (1.47, 1.98) | (5.81, 6.76) | (7.27, 8.32) | (0.57, 0.91) |
HBI 10% | ||||||||||||
Primary infection | 0.01 | 0.54 | 1.35 | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0.91 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 2.53 | 3.31 | 0.24 |
Short relapse | 0.00 | 0.77 | 1.74 | 0.08 | 0.41 | 1.06 | 0.57 | 0.02 | 0.79 | 3.72 | 3.86 | 0.36 |
Long relapse | 0.03 | 1.55 | 3.99 | 0.17 | 0.76 | 2.10 | 1.21 | 0.06 | 1.89 | 7.17 | 7.55 | 0.63 |
One patient | 0.04 | 2.64 | 6.56 | 0.34 | 1.35 | 3.73 | 1.93 | 0.07 | 3.05 | 10.94 | 11.28 | 1.13 |
More than two patientsa | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 0.29 | 1.98 | 2.74 | 0.10 |
[1] | [2] | [2] | [1] | [2] | [2] | [2] | [2] | [3] | [11] | [8] | [3] | |
Total | 0.04 | 2.86 | 7.08 | 0.34 | 1.46 | 4.07 | 2.16 | 0.08 | 3.34 | 12.92 | 14.02 | 1.23 |
95% CI | (0.01, 0.11) | (2.55, 3.21) | (6.59, 7.60) | (0.24, 0.47) | (1.23, 1.71) | (3.70, 4.48) | (1.89, 2.46) | (0.04, 0.16) | (3.00, 3.71) | (12.27, 13.59) | (13.35, 14.71) | (1.03, 1.47) |