Table 11 Summary of results for the 14 investigated scenarios
Scenario | Mean number of total patients (95% CI) | Mean number of total deaths (95% CI) | Mean total vaccine doses (95% CI) | Success rate of elimination within 200Â days (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | 294,977.4 (294,616.6–295,338.2) | 63,643.6 (63,518.7–63,768.5) | 300,448.2 (300,012.1–300,884.3) | 0.0 |
(2) | 269.6 (243.2–295.9) | 31.6 (28.8–34.3) | 37,103.3 (35,805.5–38,401.1) | 63.3 |
(3) | 317.4 (285.1–349.7) | 38.1 (34.5–41.6) | 39,172.2 (37,799.0–40,545.3) | 59.0 |
(4) | 417.5 (369.9–465.0) | 58.9 (52.6–65.3) | 41,930.2 (40,347.7–43,512.7) | 52.7 |
(5) | 83.5 (79.2–87.7) | 15.5 (14.8–16.2) | 411,047.1 (410,230.7–411,863.5) | 100.0 |
(6) | 55.3 (52.4–58.1) | 8.8 (8.3–9.2) | 388,804.2 (388,799.6–388,808.8) | 100.0 |
(7) | 285.3 (125.7–444.9) | 32.3 (16.0–48.6) | 261,692.9 (261,557.2–261,828.7) | 59.3 |
(8) | 331.7 (286.5–376.8) | 64.5 (55.0–73.9) | 408,053.3 (406,083.3–410,023.4) | 100.0 |
(9) | 55.5 (54.3–56.7) | 9.4 (9.1–9.8) | 412,984.9 (412,984.6–412,985.2) | 100.0 |
(10) | 50.5 (49.7–51.4) | 8.3 (8.0–8.6) | 409,985.3 (409,980.2–409,990.3) | 100.0 |
(11) | 58.9 (57.3–60.6) | 8.9 (8.5–9.2) | 287,146.5 (286,966.2–287,326.7) | 100.0 |
(12) | 23,115.2 (21,622.8–24,607.7) | 2,761.1 (2,581.6–2,940.5) | 22,878.5 (21,846.8–23,910.1) | 0.0 |
(13) | 192.8 (176.4–209.2) | 25.1 (23.2–27.1) | 34,362.5 (33,343.0–35,382.0) | 72.0 |
(14) | 117.1 (99.2–135.0) | 25.6 (21.8–29.4) | 406,721.3 (398,486.0–414,956.6) | 100.0 |